VA-1
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 63 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
R 63%
Estimated margin
R+3.4
5th–95th interval
R+20.9 to D+13.7
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Aug 8–Aug 9, 2025 | 541 rv | Rep 41.0% Dem 40.0% | R+1.0 | R+0.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.