VA-2
Democrats are favored, winning in 68 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 68%
Estimated margin
D+5.1
5th–95th interval
R+12.0 to D+22.4
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: Even
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research | Jul 9–Jul 13, 2026 | 700 lv | Rep 47.0% Dem 47.0% | Even | Even Even lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.