VT-1
Democrats are favored, winning in 100 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 100%
Estimated margin
D+41.9
5th–95th interval
D+24.6 to D+59.0
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
The recent polling here measures 2 different matchups, so there is no single contest to average — the forecast rests on fundamentals (the district's 2024 result and the national environment) until the nominees are settled. Every poll is below, grouped by the matchup it tested.
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Becca Balint (D) vs Gerald Malloy (R) · 2 polls | ||||||
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 18–Jun 23, 2026 | 887 lv | Dem 57.0% Rep 26.0% | D+31.0 | — | Source |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 15–Jun 20, 2026 | 954 lv | Dem 63.0% Rep 25.0% | D+38.0 | — | Source |
| Becca Balint (D) vs Mark Coester (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 15–Jun 20, 2026 | 954 lv | Dem 64.0% Rep 25.0% | D+39.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.