WA-3
Democrats are favored, winning in 88 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 88%
Estimated margin
D+12.4
5th–95th interval
R+4.9 to D+29.5
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+2.2
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Jul 8–Jul 10, 2026 | 500 lv | Rep 43.0% Dem 42.0% | R+1.0 | R+2.1 D+1.1 lean removed | Source |
| co/efficient | Apr 25–Apr 29, 2026 | 982 lv | Rep 41.0% Dem 34.0% | R+7.0 | R+6.3 R+0.7 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.