WA-5
Republicans are favored, winning in 88 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 88%
Estimated margin
R+12.3
5th–95th interval
R+29.3 to D+4.8
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
The recent polling here measures 2 different matchups, so there is no single contest to average — the forecast rests on fundamentals (the district's 2024 result and the national environment) until the nominees are settled. Every poll is below, grouped by the matchup it tested.
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Baumgartner (R) vs Nate Powell (I) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Tavern Research | May 18–May 25, 2026 | 578 lv | Ind 53.0% Rep 47.0% | — | — | Source |
| Bajun Mavalwalla (D) vs Michael Baumgartner (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Tavern Research | May 18–May 25, 2026 | 578 lv | Rep 54.0% Dem 46.0% | R+8.0 | R+6.4 R+1.6 lean removed | Source |
| Carmela Conroy (D) vs Michael Baumgartner (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Tavern Research | May 18–May 25, 2026 | 578 lv | Rep 53.0% Dem 47.0% | R+6.0 | R+4.4 R+1.6 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.