WI-1
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 53 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
R 53%
Estimated margin
R+1.0
5th–95th interval
R+18.3 to D+16.3
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+1.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | Aug 6–Aug 9, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 49.0% Dem 48.0% | R+1.0 | — | Source |
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 14–Mar 16, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 50.0% Dem 41.0% | R+9.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.