WI-3
Democrats are favored, winning in 73 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 73%
Estimated margin
D+6.5
5th–95th interval
R+10.8 to D+23.7
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+4.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM3 Research | Jun 20–Jun 25, 2026 | 535 lv | Dem 50.0% Rep 46.0% | D+4.0 | — | Source |
| Impact Research | May 26–May 31, 2026 | 500 lv | Dem 50.0% Rep 46.0% | D+4.0 | — | Source |
| Impact Research | Feb 12–Feb 17, 2026 | 500 lv | Dem 49.0% Rep 48.0% | D+1.0 | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Oct 14–Oct 15, 2025 | 609 lv | Dem 44.0% Rep 42.0% | D+2.0 | D+2.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.