WI-6
Republicans are favored, winning in 90 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 90%
Estimated margin
R+13.3
5th–95th interval
R+30.5 to D+3.9
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+20.4
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenn Grothman (R) vs Michael Thurow (I) · 2 polls | ||||||
| Tavern Research | May 18–May 28, 2026 | 437 lv | Rep 55.0% Ind 45.0% | — | — | Source |
| Change Research | Mar 17–Mar 20, 2026 | 640 lv | Rep 42.0% Ind 38.0% | — | — | Source |
| Brad Smith (D) vs Glenn Grothman (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Tavern Research | May 18–May 28, 2026 | 437 lv | Rep 61.0% Dem 39.0% | R+22.0 | R+20.4 R+1.6 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.