Alaska Senate
- Mary Peltola (Dem)
- Dan Sullivan (Rep · incumbent)
Republicans are favored, winning in 77 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 77%
Estimated margin
R+5.0
5th–95th interval
R+16.3 to D+6.3
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+1.8
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | Aug 2–Aug 5, 2026 | 1,371 lv | Mary Peltola 51.0% Dan Sullivan 49.0% | D+2.0 | — | Source |
| New York Times/Siena University | Jun 15–Jun 29, 2026 | 593 lv | Dan Sullivan 47.0% Mary Peltola 45.0% | R+2.0 | R+0.4 R+1.6 lean removed | Source |
| Alaska Survey Research | Jun 4–Jun 7, 2026 | 1,393 lv | Mary Peltola 49.0% Dan Sullivan 44.0% | D+5.0 | — | Source |
| Alaska Survey Research | May 14–May 17, 2026 | 1,401 lv | Mary Peltola 48.0% Dan Sullivan 44.0% | D+4.0 | — | Source |
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 16–Apr 19, 2026 | 1,946 lv | Mary Peltola 50.0% Dan Sullivan 44.0% | D+6.0 | — | Source |
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 16–Apr 19, 2026 | 1,946 lv | Mary Peltola 49.0% Dan Sullivan 43.0% | D+6.0 | — | Source |
| Alaska Survey Research | Mar 19–Mar 22, 2026 | 1,590 lv | Mary Peltola 52.0% Dan Sullivan 48.0% | D+4.0 | — | Source |
| Alaska Survey Research | Mar 19–Mar 22, 2026 | 1,590 lv | Mary Peltola 50.0% Dan Sullivan 44.0% | D+6.0 | — | Source |
| Alaska Survey Research | Mar 19–Mar 22, 2026 | 1,590 lv | Mary Peltola 49.0% Dan Sullivan 44.0% | D+5.0 | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Jan 16–Jan 17, 2026 | 611 unknown | Mary Peltola 49.0% Dan Sullivan 47.0% | D+2.0 | D+2.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Alaska Survey Research | Jan 8–Jan 11, 2026 | 1,988 lv | Mary Peltola 48.0% Dan Sullivan 46.0% | D+2.0 | — | Source |
| Data for Progress | Oct 17–Oct 23, 2025 | 823 lv | Mary Peltola 46.0% Dan Sullivan 45.0% | D+1.0 | D+0.8 D+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Alaska Survey Research | Oct 10–Oct 15, 2025 | 1,708 lv | Mary Peltola 48.0% Dan Sullivan 46.0% | D+2.0 | — | Source |
| Alaska Survey Research | Jul 29–Aug 1, 2025 | 1,623 lv | Dan Sullivan 47.0% Mary Peltola 42.0% | R+5.0 | — | Source |
| Data for Progress | Jul 21–Jul 27, 2025 | 678 lv | Dan Sullivan 46.0% Mary Peltola 45.0% | R+1.0 | R+1.2 D+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 21–Apr 25, 2023 | 1,261 lv | Mary Peltola 44.0% Dan Sullivan 41.0% | D+3.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.