Arkansas Senate
- Hallie Shoffner (Dem)
- Tom Cotton (Rep · incumbent)
Republicans are favored, winning in 100 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 100%
Estimated margin
R+23.1
5th–95th interval
R+34.5 to R+11.9
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+3.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2040 Strategy Group | Jul 17–Jul 25, 2026 | 586 lv | Tom Cotton 46.0% Hallie Shoffner 43.0% | R+3.0 | — | Source |
| GrayHouse | Feb 7–Feb 9, 2026 | 550 lv | Tom Cotton 58.0% Hallie Shoffner 36.0% | R+22.0 | R+20.9 R+1.1 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.