Florida Senate
Special election- Ashley Moody (Rep · incumbent)
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 64 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
R 64%
Estimated margin
R+4.4
5th–95th interval
R+24.0 to D+15.4
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
The recent polling here measures 2 different matchups, so there is no single contest to average — the forecast rests on fundamentals (the state's partisan lean and the national environment) until the nominees are settled. Every poll is below, grouped by the matchup it tested.
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Vindman (D) vs Ashley Moody (R) · 13 polls | ||||||
| University of North Florida | Jul 8–Jul 17, 2026 | 848 lv | Ashley Moody 50.0% Dem 40.0% | R+10.0 | — | Source |
| Change Research | Jul 9–Jul 11, 2026 | 1,348 rv | Ashley Moody 45.0% Dem 37.0% | R+8.0 | R+6.3 R+1.7 lean removed | Source |
| McLaughlin & Associates | Jun 3–Jun 7, 2026 | 800 lv | Ashley Moody 47.0% Dem 40.0% | R+7.0 | R+4.3 R+2.7 lean removed | Source |
| Global Strategy Group | May 18–May 21, 2026 | 1,000 lv | Ashley Moody 46.0% Dem 43.0% | R+3.0 | — | Source |
| Change Research | May 13–May 16, 2026 | 2,070 rv | Ashley Moody 46.0% Dem 41.0% | R+5.0 | R+3.3 R+1.7 lean removed | Source |
| Change Research | May 13–May 16, 2026 | 1,593 lv | Dem 47.0% Ashley Moody 45.0% | D+2.0 | D+3.7 R+1.7 lean removed | Source |
| Cherry Communications | May 1–May 9, 2026 | 604 lv | Ashley Moody 48.0% Dem 40.0% | R+8.0 | — | Source |
| Stetson University | Mar 15–Apr 13, 2026 | 848 lv | Ashley Moody 49.0% Dem 42.0% | R+7.0 | — | Source |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–Apr 9, 2026 | 406 lv | Ashley Moody 50.0% Dem 43.0% | R+7.0 | R+6.6 R+0.4 lean removed | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Apr 2–Apr 3, 2026 | 574 rv | Ashley Moody 43.0% Dem 40.0% | R+3.0 | R+2.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| MDW | Mar 27–Apr 3, 2026 | 1,834 lv | Ashley Moody 43.0% Dem 42.0% | R+1.0 | — | Source |
| Emerson College | Mar 29–Mar 31, 2026 | 1,125 lv | Ashley Moody 46.0% Dem 38.0% | R+8.0 | R+9.1 D+1.1 lean removed | Source |
| University of North Florida | Feb 21–Mar 2, 2026 | 786 lv | Ashley Moody 45.0% Dem 38.0% | R+7.0 | — | Source |
| Angie Nixon (D) vs Ashley Moody (R) · 4 polls | ||||||
| University of North Florida | Jul 8–Jul 17, 2026 | 848 lv | Ashley Moody 50.0% Dem 42.0% | R+8.0 | — | Source |
| Stetson University | Mar 15–Apr 13, 2026 | 848 lv | Ashley Moody 51.0% Dem 38.0% | R+13.0 | — | Source |
| Emerson College | Mar 29–Mar 31, 2026 | 1,125 lv | Ashley Moody 47.0% Dem 36.0% | R+11.0 | R+12.1 D+1.1 lean removed | Source |
| University of North Florida | Feb 21–Mar 2, 2026 | 786 lv | Ashley Moody 46.0% Dem 38.0% | R+8.0 | — | Source |
| Ashley Moody (R) vs Hector Mujica (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Emerson College | Mar 29–Mar 31, 2026 | 1,125 lv | Ashley Moody 45.0% Dem 38.0% | R+7.0 | R+8.1 D+1.1 lean removed | Source |
| Ashley Moody (R) vs Jennifer Jenkins (D) · 3 polls | ||||||
| University of North Florida | Oct 15–Oct 25, 2025 | 728 lv | Ashley Moody 47.0% Dem 37.0% | R+10.0 | — | Source |
| University of North Florida | Oct 15–Oct 25, 2025 | 728 lv | Ashley Moody 49.0% Dem 38.0% | R+11.0 | — | Source |
| The Tyson Group | Oct 1–Oct 3, 2025 | 800 lv | Ashley Moody 44.0% Dem 37.0% | R+7.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.