Georgia Senate
- Jon Ossoff (Dem · incumbent)
- Mike Collins (Rep)
Democrats are favored, winning in 81 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 81%
Estimated margin
D+6.1
5th–95th interval
R+5.0 to D+17.1
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+8.4
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio Ward/ Impact Research | Jul 13–Jul 16, 2026 | 1,060 lv | Jon Ossoff 52.0% Mike Collins 43.0% | D+9.0 | — | Source |
| Wick | Jun 27–Jun 30, 2026 | 1,175 lv | Jon Ossoff 47.0% Mike Collins 43.0% | D+4.0 | — | Source |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Jun 23–Jun 27, 2026 | 1,002 rv | Jon Ossoff 56.0% Mike Collins 43.0% | D+13.0 | D+12.3 D+0.7 lean removed | Source |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–Apr 9, 2026 | 407 lv | Jon Ossoff 51.0% Mike Collins 44.0% | D+7.0 | D+7.4 R+0.4 lean removed | Source |
| Emerson College | Feb 28–Mar 2, 2026 | 1,000 lv | Jon Ossoff 48.0% Mike Collins 43.0% | D+5.0 | D+3.9 D+1.1 lean removed | Source |
| Quantus Insights | Sep 9–Sep 12, 2025 | 624 rv | Jon Ossoff 38.0% Mike Collins 38.0% | Even | D+1.1 R+1.1 lean removed | Source |
| TIPP Insights | Jul 28–Aug 1, 2025 | 2,956 rv | Jon Ossoff 45.0% Mike Collins 44.0% | D+1.0 | — | Source |
| Cygnal | May 15–May 17, 2025 | 800 lv | Jon Ossoff 46.0% Mike Collins 43.0% | D+3.0 | D+3.4 R+0.4 lean removed | Source |
| Trafalgar Group | Apr 24–Apr 27, 2025 | 1,426 lv | Jon Ossoff 48.0% Mike Collins 43.0% | D+5.0 | — | Source |
| WPA Intelligence | Jan 14–Jan 15, 2025 | 500 lv | Jon Ossoff 44.0% Mike Collins 34.0% | D+10.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
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