Iowa Senate
- Josh Turek (Dem)
- Ashley Hinson (Rep)
Republicans are favored, winning in 75 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 75%
Estimated margin
R+4.7
5th–95th interval
R+15.9 to D+6.5
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+2.3
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Aug 2–Aug 4, 2026 | 712 lv | Ashley Hinson 48.0% Josh Turek 45.0% | R+3.0 | R+4.1 D+1.1 lean removed | Source |
| New York Times/Siena University | Jun 15–Jun 27, 2026 | 600 lv | Ashley Hinson 48.0% Josh Turek 46.0% | R+2.0 | R+0.4 R+1.6 lean removed | Source |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Jun 23–Jun 27, 2026 | 1,003 rv | Josh Turek 50.0% Ashley Hinson 46.0% | D+4.0 | D+3.3 D+0.7 lean removed | Source |
| Cygnal | Jun 16–Jun 19, 2026 | 600 lv | Ashley Hinson 46.0% Josh Turek 44.0% | R+2.0 | R+1.6 R+0.4 lean removed | Source |
| Global Strategy Group | Jun 8–Jun 11, 2026 | 1,000 lv | Josh Turek 47.0% Ashley Hinson 45.0% | D+2.0 | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Jun 3–Jun 4, 2026 | 557 rv | Ashley Hinson 46.0% Josh Turek 46.0% | Even | D+0.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–Apr 9, 2026 | 377 lv | Josh Turek 46.0% Ashley Hinson 45.0% | D+1.0 | D+1.4 R+0.4 lean removed | Source |
| GQR | Mar 10–Mar 16, 2026 | 1,200 lv | Ashley Hinson 47.0% Josh Turek 43.0% | R+4.0 | — | Source |
| Change Research | Jan 8–Jan 11, 2026 | 1,108 lv | Ashley Hinson 44.0% Josh Turek 41.0% | R+3.0 | R+1.3 R+1.7 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.