Idaho Senate
- Jim Risch (Rep · incumbent)
- Todd Achilles (Ind)
Republicans are favored, winning in 99 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 99%
Estimated margin
R+16.4
5th–95th interval
R+27.6 to R+5.2
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Ind-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+1.1
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Risch (R) vs Todd Achilles (I) · 4 polls | ||||||
| The Bullfinch Group | Aug 13, 2026 | 608 lv | Jim Risch 34.0% Todd Achilles 30.0% | R+4.0 | R+5.2 D+1.2 lean removed | Source |
| Change Research | Jul 28–Jul 30, 2026 | 1,213 lv | Todd Achilles 45.0% Jim Risch 42.0% | I+3.0 | I+4.7 R+1.7 lean removed | Source |
| The Bullfinch Group | May 29–Jun 1, 2026 | 774 rv | Jim Risch 40.0% Todd Achilles 36.0% | R+4.0 | R+5.2 D+1.2 lean removed | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Mar 16–Mar 17, 2026 | 639 rv | Jim Risch 48.0% Todd Achilles 34.0% | R+14.0 | R+13.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| David Roth (D) vs Jim Risch (R) vs Todd Achilles (I) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Peak Insights | Jun 6–Jun 7, 2026 | 500 lv | Jim Risch 55.0% Dem 15.0% Todd Achilles 7.0% | R+48.0 | — | Source |
| David Roth (D) vs Jim Risch (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| The Bullfinch Group | May 29–Jun 1, 2026 | 774 rv | Jim Risch 50.0% Dem 33.0% | — | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.