Kentucky Senate
- Charles Booker (Dem)
- Andy Barr (Rep)
Republicans are favored, winning in 97 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 97%
Estimated margin
R+23.1
5th–95th interval
R+43.0 to R+3.1
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Dec 18–Dec 19, 2025 | 650 unknown | Andy Barr 49.0% Charles Booker 38.0% | R+11.0 | R+10.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.