Massachusetts Senate
- Ed Markey (Dem · incumbent)
- John Deaton (Rep)
Democrats are favored, winning in 100 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 100%
Estimated margin
D+35.4
5th–95th interval
D+24.5 to D+46.4
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+19.1
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 18–Jun 23, 2026 | 623 lv | Ed Markey 50.0% John Deaton 34.0% | D+16.0 | — | Source |
| Suffolk University | Jun 8–Jun 12, 2026 | 500 lv | Ed Markey 55.0% John Deaton 30.0% | D+25.0 | — | Source |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 16–Apr 20, 2026 | 603 lv | Ed Markey 55.0% John Deaton 32.0% | D+23.0 | — | Source |
| University of New Hampshire | Feb 12–Feb 16, 2026 | 620 lv | Ed Markey 56.0% John Deaton 27.0% | D+29.0 | — | Source |
| Cygnal | Jan 22–Jan 25, 2026 | 800 lv | Ed Markey 54.0% John Deaton 30.0% | D+24.0 | D+24.4 R+0.4 lean removed | Source |
| Suffolk University | Nov 19–Nov 23, 2025 | 500 rv | Ed Markey 54.0% John Deaton 31.0% | D+23.0 | — | Source |
| SurveyUSA | Feb 28–Mar 4, 2025 | 775 rv | Ed Markey 45.0% John Deaton 26.0% | D+19.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.