Michigan Senate
- Abdul El-Sayed (Dem)
- Mike Rogers (Rep)
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 57 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
R 57%
Estimated margin
R+1.2
5th–95th interval
R+12.2 to D+10.0
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+1.2
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Aug 6–Aug 10, 2026 | 1,006 rv | Mike Rogers 51.0% Abdul El-Sayed 47.0% | R+4.0 | R+4.7 D+0.7 lean removed | Source |
| GBAO | Aug 6–Aug 10, 2026 | 800 lv | Abdul El-Sayed 50.0% Mike Rogers 44.0% | D+6.0 | — | Source |
| EPIC-MRA | Jul 24–Jul 31, 2026 | 600 lv | Mike Rogers 46.0% Abdul El-Sayed 43.0% | R+3.0 | — | Source |
| SoCal Strategies | Jul 28–Jul 30, 2026 | 640 lv | Mike Rogers 42.0% Abdul El-Sayed 41.0% | R+1.0 | R+0.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | Jul 28–Jul 29, 2026 | 672 lv | Abdul El-Sayed 45.0% Mike Rogers 45.0% | Even | — | Source |
| Glengariff Group | Jul 22–Jul 24, 2026 | 600 lv | Mike Rogers 49.0% Abdul El-Sayed 39.0% | R+10.0 | — | Source |
| Quantus Insights | Jun 29–Jun 30, 2026 | 947 lv | Abdul El-Sayed 45.0% Mike Rogers 44.0% | D+1.0 | D+2.1 R+1.1 lean removed | Source |
| Data for Progress | Jun 15–Jun 22, 2026 | 709 lv | Abdul El-Sayed 47.0% Mike Rogers 46.0% | D+1.0 | D+0.8 D+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Zenith Research | Jun 11–Jun 14, 2026 | 602 lv | Abdul El-Sayed 45.0% Mike Rogers 42.0% | D+3.0 | — | Source |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | Jun 11–Jun 13, 2026 | 827 lv | Abdul El-Sayed 47.0% Mike Rogers 42.0% | D+5.0 | — | Source |
| Tulchin Research | Jun 2–Jun 4, 2026 | 500 lv | Abdul El-Sayed 46.0% Mike Rogers 41.0% | D+5.0 | D+5.0 Even lean removed | Source |
| TIPP Insights | May 20–May 23, 2026 | 1,163 lv | Abdul El-Sayed 43.0% Mike Rogers 42.0% | D+1.0 | — | Source |
| TIPP Insights | May 20–May 23, 2026 | 1,456 rv | Abdul El-Sayed 40.0% Mike Rogers 40.0% | Even | — | Source |
| Mitchell Research | May 1–May 7, 2026 | 607 lv | Mike Rogers 42.0% Abdul El-Sayed 41.0% | R+1.0 | — | Source |
| Glengariff Group | Apr 28–May 1, 2026 | 600 lv | Mike Rogers 45.0% Abdul El-Sayed 42.0% | R+3.0 | — | Source |
| Glengariff Group | Apr 28–May 1, 2026 | 600 lv | Mike Rogers 45.0% Abdul El-Sayed 40.0% | R+5.0 | — | Source |
| Emerson College | Jan 24–Jan 25, 2026 | 1,000 lv | Abdul El-Sayed 43.0% Mike Rogers 43.0% | Even | R+1.1 D+1.1 lean removed | Source |
| Glengariff Group | Jan 2–Jan 6, 2026 | 600 lv | Mike Rogers 48.0% Abdul El-Sayed 42.0% | R+6.0 | — | Source |
| Glengariff Group | Jan 2–Jan 6, 2026 | 600 lv | Abdul El-Sayed 47.0% Mike Rogers 43.0% | D+4.0 | — | Source |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | Nov 18–Nov 21, 2025 | 616 lv | Mike Rogers 41.0% Abdul El-Sayed 38.0% | R+3.0 | — | Source |
| Rosetta Stone Communications | Oct 23–Oct 25, 2025 | 637 lv | Mike Rogers 45.0% Abdul El-Sayed 31.0% | R+14.0 | — | Source |
| Glengariff Group | May 5–May 8, 2025 | 600 rv | Mike Rogers 47.0% Abdul El-Sayed 45.0% | R+2.0 | — | Source |
| Glengariff Group | May 5–May 8, 2025 | 600 rv | Mike Rogers 47.0% Abdul El-Sayed 41.0% | R+6.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.