Minnesota Senate
Democrats are favored, winning in 94 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 94%
Estimated margin
D+10.8
5th–95th interval
R+0.5 to D+21.9
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+7.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michele Tafoya (R) vs Peggy Flanagan (DFL) · 3 polls | ||||||
| Impact Research | May 26–May 28, 2026 | 808 lv | Dem 51.0% Rep 44.0% | D+7.0 | — | Source |
| Emerson College | Feb 6–Feb 8, 2026 | 1,000 lv | Dem 47.0% Rep 41.0% | D+6.0 | D+4.9 D+1.1 lean removed | Source |
| Impact Research | Jul 8–Jul 11, 2025 | 604 lv | Dem 48.0% Rep 45.0% | D+3.0 | — | Source |
| Angie Craig (DFL) vs Michele Tafoya (R) · 2 polls | ||||||
| Emerson College | Feb 6–Feb 8, 2026 | 1,000 lv | Dem 47.0% Rep 40.0% | D+7.0 | D+5.9 D+1.1 lean removed | Source |
| Impact Research | Jul 8–Jul 11, 2025 | 604 lv | Dem 49.0% Rep 45.0% | D+4.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.