Mississippi Senate
- Scott Colom (Dem)
- Cindy Hyde-Smith (Rep · incumbent)
- Ty Pinkins (Ind)
Republicans are favored, winning in 91 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 91%
Estimated margin
R+16.0
5th–95th interval
R+35.6 to D+3.7
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) vs Scott Colom (D) · 2 polls | ||||||
| Impact Research | Apr 8–Apr 12, 2026 | 500 lv | Cindy Hyde-Smith 47.0% Scott Colom 44.0% | R+3.0 | — | Source |
| Impact Research | Jun 18–Jun 22, 2025 | 500 rv | Cindy Hyde-Smith 51.0% Scott Colom 38.0% | R+13.0 | — | Source |
| Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) vs Scott Colom (D) vs Ty Pinkins (I) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Impact Research | Apr 8–Apr 12, 2026 | 500 lv | Cindy Hyde-Smith 42.0% Scott Colom 39.0% Ty Pinkins 6.0% | R+3.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.