Montana Senate
- Alani Bankhead (Dem)
- Kurt Alme (Rep)
- Seth Bodnar (Ind)
Republicans are favored, winning in 98 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 98%
Estimated margin
R+13.7
5th–95th interval
R+24.7 to R+2.6
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+14.2
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alani Bankhead (D) vs Kurt Alme (R) · 5 polls | ||||||
| Hart Research | Aug 1–Aug 4, 2026 | 800 lv | Kurt Alme 52.0% Alani Bankhead 38.0% | R+14.0 | R+15.2 D+1.2 lean removed | Source |
| Tavern Research | Jul 23–Jul 27, 2026 | 517 lv | Kurt Alme 59.0% Alani Bankhead 41.0% | R+18.0 | R+16.4 R+1.6 lean removed | Source |
| GQR | Jul 23–Jul 26, 2026 | 500 lv | Kurt Alme 52.0% Alani Bankhead 44.0% | R+8.0 | — | Source |
| Hart Research | Jun 18–Jun 24, 2026 | 800 lv | Kurt Alme 49.0% Alani Bankhead 43.0% | R+6.0 | R+7.2 D+1.2 lean removed | Source |
| Tavern Research | Jun 16–Jun 19, 2026 | 400 lv | Kurt Alme 56.0% Alani Bankhead 44.0% | R+12.0 | R+10.4 R+1.6 lean removed | Source |
| Alani Bankhead (D) vs Kurt Alme (R) vs Kyle Austin (L) vs Seth Bodnar (I) · 6 polls | ||||||
| Hart Research | Aug 1–Aug 4, 2026 | 800 lv | Kurt Alme 45.0% Seth Bodnar 30.0% Alani Bankhead 15.0% Other 6.0% | R+30.0 | R+31.2 D+1.2 lean removed | Source |
| Tavern Research | Jul 23–Jul 27, 2026 | 517 lv | Kurt Alme 49.0% Seth Bodnar 25.0% Alani Bankhead 24.0% Other 2.0% | R+25.0 | R+23.4 R+1.6 lean removed | Source |
| GQR | Jul 23–Jul 26, 2026 | 500 lv | Kurt Alme 41.0% Seth Bodnar 27.0% Alani Bankhead 22.0% Other 6.0% | R+19.0 | — | Source |
| GrayHouse | Jun 23–Jun 24, 2026 | 500 rv | Kurt Alme 41.0% Alani Bankhead 25.0% Seth Bodnar 17.0% Other 3.0% | R+16.0 | R+14.9 R+1.1 lean removed | Source |
| Tavern Research | Jun 16–Jun 19, 2026 | 400 lv | Kurt Alme 49.0% Alani Bankhead 26.0% Seth Bodnar 24.0% Other 2.0% | R+23.0 | R+21.4 R+1.6 lean removed | Source |
| Public Opinion Strategies | Jun 8–Jun 11, 2026 | 500 lv | Kurt Alme 44.0% Alani Bankhead 25.0% Seth Bodnar 20.0% Other 4.0% | R+19.0 | R+17.1 R+1.9 lean removed | Source |
| Kurt Alme (R) vs Seth Bodnar (I) · 6 polls | ||||||
| Tavern Research | Jul 23–Jul 27, 2026 | 517 lv | Kurt Alme 51.0% Seth Bodnar 49.0% | — | — | Source |
| GQR | Jul 23–Jul 26, 2026 | 500 lv | Seth Bodnar 50.0% Kurt Alme 44.0% | — | — | Source |
| Hart Research | Jun 18–Jun 24, 2026 | 800 lv | Kurt Alme 47.0% Seth Bodnar 45.0% | — | — | Source |
| Tavern Research | Jun 16–Jun 19, 2026 | 400 lv | Kurt Alme 50.0% Seth Bodnar 50.0% | — | — | Source |
| Tavern Research | May 13–May 18, 2026 | 607 lv | Kurt Alme 50.0% Seth Bodnar 50.0% | — | — | Source |
| Change Research | Mar 17–Mar 20, 2026 | 616 lv | Kurt Alme 37.0% Seth Bodnar 35.0% | — | — | Source |
| Kurt Alme (R) vs Kyle Austin (L) vs Seth Bodnar (I) · 2 polls | ||||||
| Tavern Research | Jul 23–Jul 27, 2026 | 517 lv | Kurt Alme 50.0% Seth Bodnar 45.0% Other 5.0% | — | — | Source |
| GQR | Jul 23–Jul 26, 2026 | 500 lv | Seth Bodnar 44.0% Kurt Alme 40.0% Other 11.0% | — | — | Source |
| Alani Bankhead (D) vs Kurt Alme (R) vs Kyle Austin (L) · 2 polls | ||||||
| Tavern Research | Jul 23–Jul 27, 2026 | 517 lv | Kurt Alme 56.0% Alani Bankhead 36.0% Other 8.0% | R+20.0 | R+18.4 R+1.6 lean removed | Source |
| GQR | Jul 23–Jul 26, 2026 | 500 lv | Kurt Alme 44.0% Alani Bankhead 40.0% Other 13.0% | R+4.0 | — | Source |
| Alani Bankhead (D) vs Kurt Alme (R) vs Seth Bodnar (I) · 3 polls | ||||||
| Tavern Research | Jul 23–Jul 27, 2026 | 517 lv | Kurt Alme 49.0% Seth Bodnar 27.0% Alani Bankhead 24.0% | R+25.0 | R+23.4 R+1.6 lean removed | Source |
| Bullfinch Group | Jul 13–Jul 16, 2026 | 793 lv | Kurt Alme 36.0% Seth Bodnar 24.0% Alani Bankhead 22.0% | R+14.0 | — | Source |
| Hart Research | Jun 18–Jun 24, 2026 | 800 lv | Kurt Alme 47.0% Seth Bodnar 25.0% Alani Bankhead 22.0% | R+25.0 | R+26.2 D+1.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.