North Carolina Senate
- Roy Cooper (Dem)
- Michael Whatley (Rep)
Democrats are favored, winning in 91 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 91%
Estimated margin
D+9.1
5th–95th interval
R+1.9 to D+20.2
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+10.3
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling | Aug 9–Aug 10, 2026 | 600 lv | Roy Cooper 52.0% Michael Whatley 39.0% | D+13.0 | D+12.0 D+1.0 lean removed | Source |
| Change Research | Aug 3–Aug 6, 2026 | 915 lv | Roy Cooper 50.0% Michael Whatley 43.0% | D+7.0 | D+8.7 R+1.7 lean removed | Source |
| Change Research | Jul 29–Aug 1, 2026 | 967 unknown | Roy Cooper 50.0% Michael Whatley 41.0% | D+9.0 | D+10.7 R+1.7 lean removed | Source |
| Elon University/YouGov | Jul 23–Jul 31, 2026 | 800 a | Roy Cooper 47.0% Michael Whatley 33.0% | D+14.0 | — | Source |
| Elon University/YouGov | Jul 23–Jul 31, 2026 | 717 rv | Roy Cooper 51.0% Michael Whatley 35.0% | D+16.0 | — | Source |
| Elon University/YouGov | Jul 23–Jul 31, 2026 | 466 lv | Roy Cooper 53.0% Michael Whatley 42.0% | D+11.0 | — | Source |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Jul 23–Jul 27, 2026 | 1,005 rv | Roy Cooper 53.0% Michael Whatley 44.0% | D+9.0 | D+8.3 D+0.7 lean removed | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 10–Jul 11, 2026 | 759 lv | Roy Cooper 48.0% Michael Whatley 44.0% | D+4.0 | D+4.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| New York Times/Siena University | Jun 15–Jun 27, 2026 | 601 lv | Roy Cooper 50.0% Michael Whatley 43.0% | D+7.0 | D+8.6 R+1.6 lean removed | Source |
| Catawba College/YouGov | Jun 1–Jun 10, 2026 | 905 lv | Roy Cooper 48.0% Michael Whatley 34.0% | D+14.0 | — | Source |
| Harper Polling | May 10–May 11, 2026 | 600 lv | Roy Cooper 50.0% Michael Whatley 39.0% | D+11.0 | D+10.0 D+1.0 lean removed | Source |
| Change Research | May 4–May 8, 2026 | 957 lv | Roy Cooper 49.0% Michael Whatley 42.0% | D+7.0 | D+8.7 R+1.7 lean removed | Source |
| Opinion Diagnostics | Apr 21–Apr 24, 2026 | 830 unknown | Roy Cooper 50.0% Michael Whatley 41.0% | D+9.0 | — | Source |
| High Point University/YouGov | Mar 26–Apr 6, 2026 | 800 rv | Roy Cooper 49.0% Michael Whatley 39.0% | D+10.0 | — | Source |
| High Point University/YouGov | Mar 26–Apr 6, 2026 | 703 lv | Roy Cooper 50.0% Michael Whatley 42.0% | D+8.0 | — | Source |
| Quantus Insights | Mar 31–Apr 1, 2026 | 987 lv | Roy Cooper 49.0% Michael Whatley 44.0% | D+5.0 | D+6.1 R+1.1 lean removed | Source |
| Harper Polling | Mar 22–Mar 23, 2026 | 600 lv | Roy Cooper 49.0% Michael Whatley 41.0% | D+8.0 | D+7.0 D+1.0 lean removed | Source |
| Catawba College/YouGov | Mar 9–Mar 18, 2026 | 1,000 lv | Roy Cooper 48.0% Michael Whatley 34.0% | D+14.0 | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Mar 13–Mar 14, 2026 | 556 unknown | Roy Cooper 47.0% Michael Whatley 44.0% | D+3.0 | D+3.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Nexus Strategies/ Strategic Partners Solutions | Mar 8–Mar 9, 2026 | 800 rv | Roy Cooper 50.0% Michael Whatley 32.0% | D+18.0 | — | Source |
| Change Research | Jan 31–Feb 4, 2026 | 1,069 rv | Roy Cooper 50.0% Michael Whatley 40.0% | D+10.0 | D+11.7 R+1.7 lean removed | Source |
| TIPP Insights | Jan 12–Jan 15, 2026 | 1,512 rv | Roy Cooper 48.0% Michael Whatley 24.0% | D+24.0 | — | Source |
| Change Research | Jan 5–Jan 7, 2026 | 1,105 lv | Roy Cooper 47.0% Michael Whatley 42.0% | D+5.0 | D+6.7 R+1.7 lean removed | Source |
| Harper Polling | Nov 9–Nov 10, 2025 | 600 lv | Roy Cooper 47.0% Michael Whatley 39.0% | D+8.0 | D+7.0 D+1.0 lean removed | Source |
| Harper Polling | Sep 14–Sep 15, 2025 | 600 rv | Roy Cooper 46.0% Michael Whatley 42.0% | D+4.0 | D+3.0 D+1.0 lean removed | Source |
| Change Research | Sep 2–Sep 8, 2025 | 855 lv | Roy Cooper 48.0% Michael Whatley 41.0% | D+7.0 | D+8.7 R+1.7 lean removed | Source |
| Harper Polling | Aug 11–Aug 12, 2025 | 600 rv | Roy Cooper 47.0% Michael Whatley 39.0% | D+8.0 | D+7.0 D+1.0 lean removed | Source |
| Victory Insights | Jul 28–Jul 30, 2025 | 600 lv | Michael Whatley 44.0% Roy Cooper 44.0% | Even | — | Source |
| Victory Insights | Jul 28–Jul 30, 2025 | 600 lv | Roy Cooper 43.0% Michael Whatley 40.0% | D+3.0 | — | Source |
| Emerson College | Jul 28–Jul 30, 2025 | 1,000 rv | Roy Cooper 47.0% Michael Whatley 41.0% | D+6.0 | D+4.9 D+1.1 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.