Nebraska Senate
- Pete Ricketts (Rep · incumbent)
- Dan Osborn (Ind)
Republicans are favored, winning in 99 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 99%
Estimated margin
R+16.1
5th–95th interval
R+27.1 to R+4.9
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Other win probability Tossup band
Polls
Ind-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: I+6.6
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Ricketts (R) vs William Forbes (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Tavern Research | May 8–May 11, 2026 | 1,165 lv | Pete Ricketts 50.0% Dem 34.0% | — | — | Source |
| Cindy Burbank (D) vs Pete Ricketts (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Tavern Research | May 8–May 11, 2026 | 1,165 lv | Pete Ricketts 48.0% Dem 39.0% | — | — | Source |
| Dan Osborn (I) vs Pete Ricketts (R) · 5 polls | ||||||
| Tavern Research | May 8–May 11, 2026 | 1,165 lv | Dan Osborn 47.0% Pete Ricketts 42.0% | I+5.0 | I+6.6 R+1.6 lean removed | Source |
| Impact Research | Feb 2–Feb 5, 2026 | 600 lv | Pete Ricketts 48.0% Dan Osborn 47.0% | R+1.0 | — | Source |
| Lake Research Partners | Dec 11–Dec 17, 2025 | 900 lv | Pete Ricketts 48.0% Dan Osborn 47.0% | R+1.0 | — | Source |
| Lake Research Partners | Jul 23–Jul 29, 2025 | 900 lv | Dan Osborn 47.0% Pete Ricketts 46.0% | I+1.0 | — | Source |
| Change Research | Mar 28–Apr 1, 2025 | 524 lv | Pete Ricketts 46.0% Dan Osborn 45.0% | R+1.0 | I+0.7 R+1.7 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.