New Hampshire Senate
- Chris Pappas (Dem)
- Scott Brown (Rep)
Democrats are favored, winning in 94 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 94%
Estimated margin
D+10.4
5th–95th interval
R+0.8 to D+21.6
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+13.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Anselm College | Jun 24–Jun 25, 2026 | 1,614 rv | Chris Pappas 48.0% Scott Brown 36.0% | D+12.0 | — | Source |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 18–Jun 23, 2026 | 2,232 lv | Chris Pappas 52.0% Scott Brown 38.0% | D+14.0 | — | Source |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 17–Apr 21, 2026 | 1,295 lv | Chris Pappas 52.0% Scott Brown 38.0% | D+14.0 | — | Source |
| Emerson College | Mar 21–Mar 23, 2026 | 1,000 lv | Chris Pappas 48.0% Scott Brown 39.0% | D+9.0 | D+7.9 D+1.1 lean removed | Source |
| Saint Anselm College | Mar 16–Mar 18, 2026 | 1,491 rv | Chris Pappas 47.0% Scott Brown 38.0% | D+9.0 | — | Source |
| University of New Hampshire | Jan 15–Jan 19, 2026 | 2,053 lv | Chris Pappas 52.0% Scott Brown 42.0% | D+10.0 | — | Source |
| NHJournal/Praecones Analytica | Dec 26–Dec 28, 2025 | 603 rv | Chris Pappas 46.0% Scott Brown 28.0% | D+18.0 | — | Source |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | Dec 9–Dec 11, 2025 | 600 lv | Chris Pappas 49.0% Scott Brown 38.0% | D+11.0 | — | Source |
| Saint Anselm College | Nov 18–Nov 19, 2025 | 2,212 rv | Chris Pappas 44.0% Scott Brown 36.0% | D+8.0 | — | Source |
| co/efficient | Oct 9–Oct 13, 2025 | 1,034 lv | Chris Pappas 49.0% Scott Brown 39.0% | D+10.0 | D+10.7 R+0.7 lean removed | Source |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–Sep 23, 2025 | 1,235 lv | Chris Pappas 52.0% Scott Brown 37.0% | D+15.0 | — | Source |
| co/efficient | Sep 10–Sep 12, 2025 | 904 lv | Chris Pappas 50.0% Scott Brown 40.0% | D+10.0 | D+10.7 R+0.7 lean removed | Source |
| Saint Anselm College | Aug 26–Aug 27, 2025 | 1,776 rv | Chris Pappas 48.0% Scott Brown 37.0% | D+11.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.