Ohio Senate
Special election- Sherrod Brown (Dem)
- Jon Husted (Rep · incumbent)
Democrats are favored, winning in 67 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 67%
Estimated margin
D+2.9
5th–95th interval
R+8.0 to D+13.9
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+5.3
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wedgewood Polls | Aug 11–Aug 13, 2026 | 800 lv | Sherrod Brown 48.0% Jon Husted 44.0% | D+4.0 | — | Source |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Aug 6–Aug 10, 2026 | 1,008 rv | Sherrod Brown 53.0% Jon Husted 45.0% | D+8.0 | D+7.3 D+0.7 lean removed | Source |
| Tulchin Research | Jul 29–Aug 4, 2026 | 600 lv | Sherrod Brown 47.0% Jon Husted 43.0% | D+4.0 | D+4.0 Even lean removed | Source |
| New York Times/Siena University | Jun 15–Jun 28, 2026 | 601 lv | Jon Husted 50.0% Sherrod Brown 47.0% | R+3.0 | R+1.4 R+1.6 lean removed | Source |
| Fabrizio Ward/ Impact Research | Jun 14–Jun 16, 2026 | 800 lv | Sherrod Brown 48.0% Jon Husted 45.0% | D+3.0 | — | Source |
| Tulchin Research | Jun 2–Jun 4, 2026 | 600 lv | Sherrod Brown 46.0% Jon Husted 42.0% | D+4.0 | D+4.0 Even lean removed | Source |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | May 28–Jun 1, 2026 | 1,015 rv | Sherrod Brown 53.0% Jon Husted 45.0% | D+8.0 | D+7.3 D+0.7 lean removed | Source |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | Apr 7–Apr 14, 2026 | 1,000 rv | Jon Husted 50.0% Sherrod Brown 47.0% | R+3.0 | — | Source |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–Apr 9, 2026 | 413 lv | Jon Husted 51.0% Sherrod Brown 45.0% | R+6.0 | R+5.6 R+0.4 lean removed | Source |
| Quantus Insights | Mar 13–Mar 14, 2026 | 784 lv | Jon Husted 46.0% Sherrod Brown 44.0% | R+2.0 | R+0.9 R+1.1 lean removed | Source |
| OnMessage Public Strategies | Mar 3–Mar 8, 2026 | 600 lv | Sherrod Brown 47.0% Jon Husted 45.0% | D+2.0 | — | Source |
| EMC Research | Feb 10–Feb 22, 2026 | 1,343 lv | Sherrod Brown 51.0% Jon Husted 47.0% | D+4.0 | — | Source |
| Emerson College | Dec 6–Dec 8, 2025 | 850 rv | Jon Husted 49.0% Sherrod Brown 46.0% | R+3.0 | R+4.1 D+1.1 lean removed | Source |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | Oct 2–Oct 14, 2025 | 800 rv | Sherrod Brown 49.0% Jon Husted 48.0% | D+1.0 | — | Source |
| Hart Research | Sep 19–Sep 22, 2025 | 800 lv | Sherrod Brown 48.0% Jon Husted 45.0% | D+3.0 | D+1.8 D+1.2 lean removed | Source |
| Emerson College | Aug 18–Aug 19, 2025 | 1,000 rv | Jon Husted 50.0% Sherrod Brown 44.0% | R+6.0 | R+7.1 D+1.1 lean removed | Source |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | Apr 18–Apr 24, 2025 | 800 rv | Jon Husted 49.0% Sherrod Brown 46.0% | R+3.0 | — | Source |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | Feb 14–Feb 21, 2025 | 800 rv | Jon Husted 47.0% Sherrod Brown 41.0% | R+6.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.