Oregon Senate
- Jeff Merkley (Dem · incumbent)
- David Brock Smith (Rep)
Democrats are favored, winning in 96 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 96%
Estimated margin
D+21.7
5th–95th interval
D+1.5 to D+41.4
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.