Rhode Island Senate
- Jack Reed (Dem · incumbent)
- Raymond McKay (Rep)
Democrats are favored, winning in 100 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 100%
Estimated margin
D+23.8
5th–95th interval
D+12.5 to D+35.0
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+17.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 18–Jun 23, 2026 | 664 lv | Jack Reed 52.0% Raymond McKay 35.0% | D+17.0 | — | Source |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 16–Apr 20, 2026 | 556 lv | Jack Reed 52.0% Raymond McKay 34.0% | D+18.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.