South Carolina Senate
- Annie Andrews (Dem)
Republicans are favored, winning in 82 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 82%
Estimated margin
R+11.0
5th–95th interval
R+30.9 to D+8.9
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
The recent polling here measures 7 different matchups, so there is no single contest to average — the forecast rests on fundamentals (the state's partisan lean and the national environment) until the nominees are settled. Every poll is below, grouped by the matchup it tested.
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annie Andrews (D) vs John Warren (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 16–Jul 17, 2026 | 577 unknown | Annie Andrews 42.0% Rep 36.0% | D+6.0 | D+6.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Annie Andrews (D) vs Trey Gowdy (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 16–Jul 17, 2026 | 577 unknown | Rep 44.0% Annie Andrews 41.0% | R+3.0 | R+2.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Annie Andrews (D) vs Pamela Evette (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 16–Jul 17, 2026 | 577 unknown | Annie Andrews 42.0% Rep 41.0% | D+1.0 | D+1.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Annie Andrews (D) vs Russell Fry (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 16–Jul 17, 2026 | 577 unknown | Annie Andrews 42.0% Rep 39.0% | D+3.0 | D+3.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Annie Andrews (D) vs Mark Lynch (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 16–Jul 17, 2026 | 577 unknown | Annie Andrews 41.0% Rep 38.0% | D+3.0 | D+3.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Annie Andrews (D) vs Mark Sanford (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 16–Jul 17, 2026 | 577 unknown | Annie Andrews 41.0% Rep 40.0% | D+1.0 | D+1.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Annie Andrews (D) vs Ralph Norman (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 16–Jul 17, 2026 | 577 unknown | Rep 43.0% Annie Andrews 42.0% | R+1.0 | R+0.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Annie Andrews (D) vs Lindsey Graham (R) · 3 polls | ||||||
| Impact Research | Jun 17–Jun 22, 2026 | 700 lv | Rep 48.0% Annie Andrews 45.0% | R+3.0 | — | Source |
| Impact Research | Feb 25–Mar 1, 2026 | 700 lv | Rep 47.0% Annie Andrews 42.0% | R+5.0 | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Nov 21–Nov 22, 2025 | 704 unknown | Rep 42.0% Annie Andrews 36.0% | R+6.0 | R+5.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.