South Dakota Senate
- Mike Rounds (Rep · incumbent)
- Brian Bengs (Ind)
Republicans are favored, winning in 100 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 100%
Estimated margin
R+23.9
5th–95th interval
R+35.2 to R+12.4
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Ind-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+20.9
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Bengs (I) vs Mike Rounds (R) · 5 polls | ||||||
| Public Opinion Strategies | Jul 6–Jul 9, 2026 | 500 lv | Mike Rounds 56.0% Brian Bengs 33.0% | R+23.0 | R+21.1 R+1.9 lean removed | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | May 29–May 30, 2026 | 726 rv | Mike Rounds 44.0% Brian Bengs 40.0% | R+4.0 | R+3.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Feb 17–Feb 18, 2026 | 685 rv | Mike Rounds 47.0% Brian Bengs 35.0% | R+12.0 | R+11.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Nov 13–Nov 14, 2025 | 814 rv | Mike Rounds 44.0% Brian Bengs 31.0% | R+13.0 | R+12.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 30–Jul 31, 2025 | 524 lv | Mike Rounds 41.0% Brian Bengs 28.0% | R+13.0 | R+12.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Julian Beaudion (D) vs Mike Rounds (R) · 3 polls | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | May 29–May 30, 2026 | 726 rv | Mike Rounds 56.0% Dem 31.0% | — | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Feb 17–Feb 18, 2026 | 685 rv | Mike Rounds 49.0% Dem 32.0% | — | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Nov 13–Nov 14, 2025 | 814 rv | Mike Rounds 52.0% Dem 30.0% | — | — | Source |
| Brian Bengs (I) vs Julian Beaudion (D) vs Mike Rounds (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | May 29–May 30, 2026 | 726 rv | Mike Rounds 43.0% Brian Bengs 23.0% Dem 18.0% | R+20.0 | R+19.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.