Texas Senate
- James Talarico (Dem)
- Ken Paxton (Rep)
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 59 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
D 59%
Estimated margin
D+1.5
5th–95th interval
R+10.0 to D+12.6
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+1.6
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Aug 9–Aug 10, 2026 | 1,000 lv | Ken Paxton 47.0% James Talarico 46.0% | R+1.0 | R+2.1 D+1.1 lean removed | Source |
| YouGov Blue | Jul 15–Jul 31, 2026 | 1,001 rv | James Talarico 48.0% Ken Paxton 45.0% | D+3.0 | — | Source |
| Wedgewood Polls | Jul 30–Jul 31, 2026 | 800 lv | James Talarico 48.0% Ken Paxton 46.0% | D+2.0 | — | Source |
| Texas Southern University | Jul 27–Jul 30, 2026 | 1,200 lv | James Talarico 47.0% Ken Paxton 45.0% | D+2.0 | — | Source |
| Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena University | Jul 27–Jul 30, 2026 | 619 lv | James Talarico 47.0% Ken Paxton 43.0% | D+4.0 | — | Source |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Jul 23–Jul 27, 2026 | 1,005 rv | James Talarico 51.0% Ken Paxton 48.0% | D+3.0 | D+2.3 D+0.7 lean removed | Source |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | Jul 15–Jul 17, 2026 | 1,048 lv | James Talarico 45.0% Ken Paxton 40.0% | D+5.0 | D+4.2 D+0.8 lean removed | Source |
| A2 Insights | Jun 23–Jun 28, 2026 | 618 lv | James Talarico 48.0% Ken Paxton 46.0% | D+2.0 | — | Source |
| New York Times/Siena University | Jun 19–Jun 27, 2026 | 656 lv | Ken Paxton 47.0% James Talarico 47.0% | Even | D+1.6 R+1.6 lean removed | Source |
| SoCal Strategies | Jun 21, 2026 | 800 lv | Ken Paxton 49.0% James Talarico 47.0% | R+2.0 | R+1.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | Jun 5–Jun 12, 2026 | 1,200 rv | Ken Paxton 43.0% James Talarico 42.0% | R+1.0 | — | Source |
| Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena University | Jun 1–Jun 4, 2026 | 807 lv | Ken Paxton 46.0% James Talarico 46.0% | Even | — | Source |
| Quantus Insights | Jun 3–Jun 4, 2026 | 800 lv | Ken Paxton 45.0% James Talarico 43.0% | R+2.0 | R+0.9 R+1.1 lean removed | Source |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | May 27–May 28, 2026 | 1,670 lv | James Talarico 47.0% Ken Paxton 44.0% | D+3.0 | D+2.2 D+0.8 lean removed | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | May 22–May 23, 2026 | 643 rv | James Talarico 45.0% Ken Paxton 38.0% | D+7.0 | D+7.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Texas Southern University | Apr 22–May 6, 2026 | 1,223 lv | Ken Paxton 45.0% James Talarico 45.0% | Even | — | Source |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | Apr 10–Apr 20, 2026 | 1,200 rv | James Talarico 42.0% Ken Paxton 34.0% | D+8.0 | — | Source |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | Apr 17–Apr 20, 2026 | 1,018 lv | James Talarico 46.0% Ken Paxton 41.0% | D+5.0 | D+4.2 D+0.8 lean removed | Source |
| Impact Research | Mar 12–Mar 17, 2026 | 900 lv | James Talarico 44.0% Ken Paxton 43.0% | D+1.0 | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Mar 4–Mar 5, 2026 | 576 unknown | James Talarico 47.0% Ken Paxton 45.0% | D+2.0 | D+2.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| University of Houston/YouGov | Jan 20–Jan 31, 2026 | 1,502 lv | Ken Paxton 46.0% James Talarico 44.0% | R+2.0 | — | Source |
| Emerson College | Jan 10–Jan 12, 2026 | 1,165 rv | Ken Paxton 46.0% James Talarico 46.0% | Even | R+1.1 D+1.1 lean removed | Source |
| Ragnar Research Partners | Nov 12–Nov 17, 2025 | 1,000 lv | Ken Paxton 44.0% James Talarico 44.0% | Even | — | Source |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University | Sep 19–Oct 1, 2025 | 1,650 rv | Ken Paxton 49.0% James Talarico 46.0% | R+3.0 | — | Source |
| UT Tyler | Sep 17–Sep 24, 2025 | 1,032 rv | Ken Paxton 38.0% James Talarico 37.0% | R+1.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.