Virginia Senate
- Mark Warner (Dem · incumbent)
- Bert Mizusawa (Rep)
Democrats are favored, winning in 99 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 99%
Estimated margin
D+14.7
5th–95th interval
D+3.5 to D+25.8
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+18.9
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Public Sentiment Institute | Jun 12–Jun 16, 2026 | 996 lv | Mark Warner 51.0% Bert Mizusawa 33.0% | D+18.0 | — | Source |
| The Public Sentiment Institute/ Virginia Project | May 1–May 5, 2026 | 1,047 lv | Mark Warner 55.0% Bert Mizusawa 29.0% | D+26.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
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