Senate
All 35 seats on the 2026 ballot.
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Senate
Republicans favored to control — 54 in 100 simulations.
D 46%
R 54%
51 = majority
46% Dem control 54% Rep control mean 50.1 Dem-caucus seats Dem-caucus seats per simulated world; dashed line = majority.
35 of 35 races
| Race ▲ | Rating | Win prob. | Margin | Trend | Lean | Polls | Last poll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Senate | Favors Rep | R 77% | R+5.0 | R+13.1 | 16 | Aug 5, 2026 | |
| Alabama Senate | Favors Rep | R 100% | R+22.4 | R+29.5 | 1 | Jul 11, 2026 | |
| Arkansas Senate | Favors Rep | R 100% | R+23.1 | R+30.6 | 2 | Jul 25, 2026 | |
| Colorado Senate | Favors Dem | D 94% | D+19.0 | D+10.8 | 0 | — | |
| Delaware Senate | Favors Dem | D 97% | D+23.3 | D+15.3 | 0 | — | |
| Florida Senate special | Tossup | R 64% | R+4.4 | R+9.7 | 21 | Jul 17, 2026 | |
| Georgia Senate | Favors Dem | D 81% | D+6.1 | R+2.5 | 10 | Jul 16, 2026 | |
| Iowa Senate | Favors Rep | R 75% | R+4.7 | R+12.2 | 9 | Aug 4, 2026 | |
| Idaho Senate | Favors Rep | R 99% | R+16.4 | R+35.1 | 6 | Aug 13, 2026 | |
| Illinois Senate | Favors Dem | D 95% | D+19.1 | D+12.5 | 0 | — | |
| Kansas Senate | Favors Rep | R 91% | R+9.0 | R+16.9 | 4 | Aug 8, 2026 | |
| Kentucky Senate | Favors Rep | R 97% | R+23.1 | R+29.7 | 1 | Dec 19, 2025 | |
| Louisiana Senate | Favors Rep | R 90% | R+15.2 | R+21.8 | 0 | — | |
| Massachusetts Senate | Favors Dem | D 100% | D+35.4 | D+27.8 | 7 | Jun 23, 2026 | |
| Maine Senate | Favors Dem | D 76% | D+4.7 | D+6.5 | 6 | Aug 10, 2026 | |
| Michigan Senate | Tossup | R 57% | R+1.2 | R+0.8 | 23 | Aug 10, 2026 | |
| Minnesota Senate | Favors Dem | D 94% | D+10.8 | D+4.2 | 5 | May 28, 2026 | |
| Mississippi Senate | Favors Rep | R 91% | R+16.0 | R+21.2 | 3 | Apr 12, 2026 | |
| Montana Senate | Favors Rep | R 98% | R+13.7 | R+19.7 | 24 | Aug 4, 2026 | |
| North Carolina Senate | Favors Dem | D 91% | D+9.1 | R+3.8 | 30 | Aug 10, 2026 | |
| Nebraska Senate | Favors Rep | R 99% | R+16.1 | R+21.3 | 7 | May 11, 2026 | |
| New Hampshire Senate | Favors Dem | D 94% | D+10.4 | D+3.6 | 13 | Jun 25, 2026 | |
| New Jersey Senate | Favors Dem | D 93% | D+17.5 | D+9.4 | 0 | — | |
| New Mexico Senate | Favors Dem | D 89% | D+15.0 | D+6.9 | 0 | — | |
| Ohio Senate special | Favors Dem | D 67% | D+2.9 | R+11.1 | 18 | Aug 13, 2026 | |
| Oklahoma Senate | Favors Rep | R 99% | R+28.5 | R+35.2 | 0 | — | |
| Oregon Senate | Favors Dem | D 96% | D+21.7 | D+13.7 | 0 | — | |
| Rhode Island Senate | Favors Dem | D 100% | D+23.8 | D+15.8 | 2 | Jun 23, 2026 | |
| South Carolina Senate | Favors Rep | R 82% | R+11.0 | R+16.3 | 10 | Jul 17, 2026 | |
| South Dakota Senate | Favors Rep | R 100% | R+23.9 | R+29.2 | 9 | Jul 9, 2026 | |
| Tennessee Senate | Favors Rep | R 97% | R+22.9 | R+28.0 | 0 | — | |
| Texas Senate | Tossup | D 59% | D+1.5 | R+11.1 | 25 | Aug 10, 2026 | |
| Virginia Senate | Favors Dem | D 99% | D+14.7 | D+6.5 | 2 | Jun 16, 2026 | |
| West Virginia Senate | Favors Rep | R 100% | R+36.6 | R+41.9 | 0 | — | |
| Wyoming Senate | Favors Rep | R 100% | R+39.3 | R+46.1 | 0 | — |